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600209（罗顿发展）2010年 3月 1日以后，BBD指标出现负值，股价一路下跌。 见图 1-8。

BBD 指标用于反映大资金的成交方向和力度，如果我们所能够看到的大资 金的交易方向越明确、交易的力度越大，则可在明了大资金是在买还是在卖的 基础上来掌握未来趋势。 BBD 为正值表示大资金在流入。BBD 的正值越大，证明大资金的流入越多。 例如：600000（浦发银行）2010 年 2 月 24 日 BBD 指标红柱连续在 0 轴之上，表明机构资金流入力度较大，机构做多意愿较强。见图1-1。

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万事达卡中国区总裁常青表示，值上半年收官的重要节点，本月NEI跃升至近两年最高值，新经济也持续在经济复苏中发挥关键作用。本月，还尤其看到了小型企业招聘份额的回升与线下服务业的首次回暖，彰显了小微企业运行态势的改善以及经济活力的进一步恢复。

We use newly-established enterprises data to monitor new enterprises in sectors(Chart 7).

一般而言，股价的运动总是围绕某一价值中枢（如均线、成本线等）在一定的范围内变动，形成‘股价信道’的概念，也对预测未来行情的走势起着重要的参考作用。运用上下带线可防交易中的一卖就涨或一买就跌的陷阱。

　　峰值功率：是指在不失真条件下，将功放音量调至最大时，功放所能输出的最大音乐功率。

投顾建议：投资者可对短期走势保持乐观

June 2017MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index

新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图6所示，上海、深圳、北京、杭州与广州排名前五。该排序的计算方式是，计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。

万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。

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一、指数概览

2017年1月，万事达卡财新BBD中国的新经济指数（NEI）为28.7，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为28.7%。该值较2016年12月的32.5下降3.8个百分点，是新经济指数发布以来下降程度最大的一次（图1）。NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见第二部分和《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》。

二、主要分项指标

NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2017年1月NEI的下降主要来自资本投入和科技投入的下降。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大，在经过上个月的上升后，本月新经济在资本投入指数中的比重全面下滑，下降9个百分点至29.8（图2）。科技投入指数同样有所下降，回到了2016年3月水平，上月为34.1，本月为27.2。劳动力投入指数上升至28.6，上月为26.0，中止了该指数从2016年3月以来的下跌趋势。

三、新经济就业

四、春节效应

首先，观察不同行业在春运前后的工资变化，见图7。下表左方显示2017年春运前后入职工资增加最快的15个行业，这些行业可能属于外来人口比例较高，同时需求弹性较低的行业，当农民工回乡时，工资上升相对较快。同时，下表右方的行业或者其就业受春运影响较低，或者是需求受春运影响下降，劳动力招聘工资呈下降趋势。

其次，我们对不同城市进行类似分析，见图8。可以看到在图左方，连云港、海口、中山、宁波、金华等城市受到春运的影响较大，工资上升很快；而在图右方，泰安、佛山、潍坊、太原和保定等城市等受到春运的影响则较小，他们的工资甚至出现了负增长。

最后，我们使用航班大数据计算不同城市在春运前后的流量数据，见图9。图左方显示，宁波、温州和广州等地春运时每天航班流出人口是春运前每天航班流出人口的1.2倍以上，属于外来人口从业占比较高的地区。图右方显示，福州、温州和海口等地春运时每天航班到达人口是春运前每天航班到达人口的1.2倍以上，属于较多本市人口在外就业的城市。注意到一些城市比如福州、温州同时出现在左右两个表单上，这意味着该城市不仅有较多外来人口，同时也有大量本地人口在外就业。

五、城市新经济排名

2017年1月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，上海、北京、重庆、广州与深圳排名前五。重庆在连续一年的攀升中，从排名第九升至排名第三。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。

In an effort to increase transparency on the structural changes underway in China’s economy, the MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index (NEI) was established. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publicly released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

In January 2017, the MasterCard Caixin-BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 28.7, indicating that the New Economy inputs accounted for 28.7% of overall economic input activities that month. This reading recorded a 380 basis point decrease from December, the largest single month drop since the release of the NEI (Chart 1).

The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weight of the index, respectively. Among the primary inputs, the increase in the January NEI reading came primarily from a rise in capital investment. In 2H16, capital investment has fluctuated greatly, with a substantial decline to 29.8 in January after a 38.8 reading in December, down by 9 ppts (Chart 2). The technology input reading decreased to 27.2 from 34.1. The labor input index increased to 28.6, up from 26.0 last month, ending a trend of continuous decline since March and marks the lowest reading since the NEI has been released.

Percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were 1.1, -3.1 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively. After accounting for the sum of their weightings, the net result for the NEI was a 3.8 pp decrease in January from December figures (Chart 3).

Looking at the sub-sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 9.8 pp to the NEI, a noticeable drop from December figures. Biotech moved into second, contributing 6.9 pp. The third largest contributor was Advanced Materials with 6.1 pp (Chart 4).

In January 2017, the average monthly entry-level salary of the New Economy was RMB 8,799 per month, an increase from December figures (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.

Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 27.1% of total hiring in January, a significant increase from the 24.9% figure in December. The compensation share of New Economy sectors increased, from 27.0% to 30.2%. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 11.3% as compared to economy-wide counterparts (Chart 6).

Finally, we use flight data to calculate before and after Spring Festival Travel Rush among cities (Chart 9). The left hand side of the chart indiactes that Ningbo, Wenzhou and Guangzhou, among others, have seen pre-Spring Festival departures approximately 1.2 times more than post-Spring Festival departures as they have a high proportion of non-local employment. The right hand side of the chart highlights Fuzhou, Wenzhou and Haikou, among other cities, that pre-Spring Festival arrival flights exceed post-Spring Festival arrivals by approximately 1.2 times. It is worth noting that some cities, including Fuzhou and Wenzhou, appear on both left and right hand sides. This indicates that there are both a large amount of non-local workers and natives who work outside of the city.

Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities are shown in Chart 10. The top five cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The rankings are based on a moving average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.

When looking at the city NEI rankings based on average NEI from July 2016 to January 2017, the top five are Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou (Chart 11).

The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

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